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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd