War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the election under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".