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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions declining and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a wild and fun year, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still