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China has sent its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.